Wall Street Bets on Fed Rate Hike: Here's What It Means for Bitcoin, Bonds and Trump

Nearly every major bank now expects the Fed to raise rates for the first time in three years. Markets have mostly priced it in, but the political fallout could run deeper than one hike.

• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years due to persistent inflation, with markets pricing in a near-certain quarter-point hike.
• Higher rates are anticipated to negatively impact assets like Bitcoin by increasing borrowing costs and making safer government bonds more attractive, though the market's reaction will depend on future rate hike expectations.
• The decision comes amidst political pressure from President Trump for lower rates and before the midterm elections, with significant attention on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's statements regarding future monetary policy.

Topics: Market cycles macro sensitivity, Public debt, Institutional adoption, Interest rate sensitivity, Tokenized us treasuries, Asset manager initiatives

Tags: #fedratehike #bitcoin #bonds #interestrates #inflation #treasuryyields #federalreserve #fedwatchtool #cpi #kevinwarsh

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Analysis: Federal Reserve may be pulled into Bessent’s effort to support Japan’s yen

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants to defend the yen without selling Treasurys into a sensitive U.S. bond market. The Federal Reserve could help.

• The U.S. Treasury, led by Secretary Scott Bessent, is seeking the Federal Reserve's assistance to support Japan's weakening yen without destabilizing the U.S. Treasury market.
• A key proposal involves expanding the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility, allowing Japan to borrow Treasurys instead of selling them, thereby mitigating upward pressure on U.S. yields.
• This situation highlights a potential shift in the relationship between the Treasury and the Fed, with new Chairman Kevin Warsh signaling a willingness for greater collaboration on international financial matters.

Topics: Jurisdictions, Public debt, Banks bankingsystems, Cross jurisdictional policy, Tokenized us treasuries, Core banking integration

Tags: #federalreserve #scottbessent #japaneseyen #ustreasurys #fimarepofacility #currencyintervention #kevinwarsh #carrytrade #treasuryyields #swapline

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Stephen Miran’s monetarism revival could reshape Fed policy and crypto markets

• A new paper co-authored by former Fed Governor Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini advocates for the Federal Reserve to re-emphasize money supply data (monetarism) in its policy decisions.
• The authors argue that focusing on monetary aggregates like M2 could have helped avoid the recent inflation surge, and that current policy is neutrally aligned.
• This shift in focus could significantly impact stablecoins, as they represent a growing pool of dollar-like instruments that influence the broader money supply and increase demand for U.S. Treasuries.

Topics: Public debt, Institutional adoption, Blockchain usage, Tokenized us treasuries, Asset manager initiatives, Stablecoins digital cash

Tags: #stephenmiran #monetarism #federalreserve #moneysupply #inflation #stablecoins #ustreasuries #m2 #pstarmodels #kevinwarsh

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Trading Day: Stocks dip as sluggish July shuffles in

U.S. and world stocks embarked on a new month and quarter with little conviction, as tech shares in general and chip stocks in particular weighed on Wall Street. Meanwhile, remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that inflation ​risks have eased boosted gold and helped the dollar pare earlier gains.

• U.S. stocks dipped, particularly tech and chip sectors, at the start of July.
• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's comments on easing inflation risks boosted gold and weakened the dollar.
• President Trump's financial disclosures revealed significant income from his family's crypto business, including meme coins.

Topics: Asset types, Institutional adoption, Political endorsements opposition, Alternative assets, Onboarding prime brokerage, Pro innovation government policy

Tags: #trump #cryptobusiness #digitalassets #worldlibertyfinancial #memecoins #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #inflation #interestrates #irantalks

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Federal Reserve Chair Warsh selects Bessent staffer Samantha Schwab as adviser

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has appointed Samantha Schwab, formerly of the Treasury Department, as his adviser to enhance coordination between the two institutions.
• Schwab's appointment is notable due to her family connection to Charles Schwab, the brokerage firm that recently launched spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading.
• While Schwab's role is not crypto-specific, her position highlights the increasing intersection of traditional finance and digital assets within regulatory bodies.

Topics: Jurisdictions, Institutional adoption, Cross jurisdictional policy, Asset manager initiatives

Tags: #kevinwarsh #samanthaschwab #federalreserve #treasurydepartment #adviser #cryptomarkets #charlesschwab #bitcoin #ethereum #institutionalcoordination

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Warsh Rattles Markets With Inflation Vow They Expect Him to Keep

Kevin Warsh stated that "price stability" would be his priority as Federal Reserve chairman, leading investors to up bets on an imminent tightening. Warsh's comments sparked a selloff in short-term debt and gave a boost to inflation-sensitive long-term Treasuries, with the dollar surging and gold and Bitcoin slumping. The market is now pricing in rate hikes sooner rather than later, with traders seeing the odds of a quarter-point rise in six weeks' time as approaching a coin flip.

• New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh prioritized price stability, signaling a hawkish stance on inflation.
• This led to market shifts: a sell-off in short-term debt, a boost to long-term Treasuries, a stronger dollar, and declines in gold and Bitcoin.
• Investors are now pricing in earlier interest rate hikes, creating market uncertainty due to the Fed's reduced guidance and data-dependent approach.

Topics: Market cycles macro sensitivity, Public debt, Legal regulatory, Interest rate sensitivity, Tokenized us treasuries, Securities law classification

Tags: #kevinwarsh #federalreserve #inflation #pricestability #interestrates #treasuries #bondmarket #dollar #gold #bitcoin

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Bitcoin Markets Still Spooked by Possible Strategy BTC Sales: Analysis

• Bitcoin's price is being capped by concerns over potential future sales by 'Strategy' to fund dividend payments, despite broader market optimism.
• The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's stance on interest rates add to market uncertainty.
• Current market expectations do not favor a rate cut, with a potential hike by year-end posing a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Topics: Asset types, Market cycles macro sensitivity, Legal regulatory, Financial instruments, Interest rate sensitivity, Securities law classification

Tags: #bitcoin #btc #strategy #fedfomc #interestrates #qcpcapital #dividendpayments #convertibleseniornotes #kevinwarsh #monetarypolicy

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Warsh pushes for operational changes at Federal Reserve

• New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is initiating significant operational changes, including the formation of five task forces to reform communication, operations, and the Fed's balance sheet.
• Warsh signals a shift away from extensive forward guidance, aiming to reduce market dependence on Fed statements and increase focus on economic conditions, which may lead to higher volatility.
• The Fed's approach to digital assets is expected to become clearer, potentially reducing friction for banks engaging with crypto, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

Topics: Jurisdictions, Legal regulatory, Scalability, Regulatory sandboxes pilots, Securities law classification, Institutional capital inflows

Tags: #kevinwarsh #federalreserve #balancesheet #forwardguidance #digitalassets #tokenizedassets #monetarypolicy #interestrates #financialmarkets #taskforces

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Trump picks Kevin Warsh to lead Federal Reserve, signaling major changes for crypto and monetary policy

• Kevin Warsh, with significant crypto holdings in entities like dYdX and Solana, has been sworn in as the new Fed Chair.
• His confirmation process highlighted potential conflicts of interest, leading to a pledge to divest his digital asset investments.
• Warsh's appointment introduces uncertainty regarding future monetary policy and its implications for the crypto market.

Topics: Jurisdictions, Legal regulatory, Institutional adoption, Established hubs, Regulatory sandboxes pilots, Asset manager initiatives

Tags: #kevinwarsh #federalreserve #fedchair #cryptoholdings #bitcoin #blockchain #monetarypolicy #dydx #solana #trump

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Analysis: Trump said he loves inflation. Why that should be music to Kevin Warsh's ears

The president said Wednesday he is happy with inflation at 4.2%. That will be welcome news for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Topics: Public debt, Market cycles macro sensitivity, Jurisdictions, Tokenized us treasuries, Interest rate sensitivity, Established hubs

Tags: #inflation #interestrates #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #donaldtrump #monetarypolicy #treasuryyields #geopolitics #energyprices #categorized

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